Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly.
With just under a month to go until Election Day, financial decisions made by both parties appear to suggest the question being asked is not if Democrats take control of the House, but how large the majority may be.
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage. In February 2025, the Cook Political Report's initial ratings for the midterms found a small slice of 39 races listed as competitive, with 18 classified as "toss-ups."
That topline number has shifted, with Cook currently listing 43 districts as competitive, including 22 toss-ups. But beyond that, under the hood, Democratic and Republican groups are marshalling hundreds of millions of dollars to influence an electoral landscape that is much larger.
An NPR analysis of both parties' campaign targets, future ad reservations and outside spending by Trump-aligned super PACs finds more than 90 districts where resources are being committed in the closing weeks of the midterms.
Here's a look at the types of races that will decide who controls the House in 2027.
Loading...
Competitive races on paper
If the political environment remained unchanged from the 2024 presidential election, a small group of House races would be competitive no matter what, like the 10 districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee. (Not counting those changed by redistricting in the last 18 months, but more on that below)
That includes the seats held by New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17), Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) and Washington state Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).Another group of seats had very close margins in 2024, like Democratic Rep. Adam Gray's victory by fewer than 200 votes in California's 13th Congressional District and a 799 vote victory for Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's 1st Congressional District.
But this is not the same political environment as 2024. President Trump's unpopularity with voters has reached record highs, with the share of voters who strongly disapprove of his job performance sitting higher than any point in either term in office.
Voters are unhappy with the ongoing war in Iran, rising gas prices, tariffs and immigration enforcement, and a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment has driven a record number of Congressional retirement announcements along with a number of sitting lawmakers losing their primary races this year.
Other races to watch: CO-08, NY-03, PA-08, PA-10
Redistricting
Further scrambling the map: a redistricting arms race that resulted in new district lines for an estimated 1 in 10 registered voters across several states.
Republican-led state legislatures, at Trump's urging and in some cases threats, tried to draw new House maps that would give them multiple additional seats in states like Texas and Florida, while Democrats countered in California.
But many of the new district lines were drawn with assumptions made about voters who backed President Trump in 2024 and what they would do in 2026, and in some cases, could backfire.
According to Strength in Numbers/Verasight polling data shared with NPR, Trump has lower-than-average job approval in communities that make up newly-redrawn districts in South Florida and along the Texas-Mexico border, like TX-28 and FL-25.
In North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, Democrat Rep. Don Davis saw his district that Trump narrowly carried in 2024 become even more conservative. But the national environment — and a U.S. Senate race where polls show Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper leading — has made the contest more competitive. More than $20 million in ad reservations are scheduled between now and Election Day in the rural and coastal district, making it one of the most expensive House races in the country.
Other races to watch: AL-02, OH-09, FL-22,TX-35
Following the money and messaging
Heading into the final electoral sprint, there are sixty districts that are listed as priorities of both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee along with Trump-aligned super PACs like No Going Back.
On average, those districts voted for Trump by an 8% margin in 2024, highlighting how deep into conservative areas competitive races have moved.
The DCCC has more than 90 districts on its battlefield map, including 46 targets to flip in its "Red To Blue" program, 26 "Frontline" incumbents in potentially tight races and another 19 it considers "Districts In Play."
The NRCC has 17 districts on its "Patriots" list of vulnerable incumbents to support and another 27 candidates in open races or challenging Democratic incumbents as part of the "MAGA Majority" program.
Loading...
Not every race will ultimately end up close or see party control change hands. Many of the DCCC's "Districts In Play" gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little-to-no ad spend from either party.
Then, there are races like Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, where millions of dollars in spending has poured in from both parties — including from Trump-aligned super PACS — in a district Trump won by 15 points.
In Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, which Trump also won by 15 points, six-figure outside spending targeting Democratic nominee Chris Jones and boosting incumbent Rep. French Hill contributed to the DCCC adding that race to its "Red To Blue" target.
According to Ballotpedia tracking, the target lists compiled by the DCCC and NRCC are usually broader in their scope and limited in their success. From 2012-2024, the Democrats won a total of 34% of its target districts and Republicans won 29%.
In some races and places, Republicans and Democrats are beginning to pull back ad reservations for the rest of the year, according to data from ad tracking firm AdImpact, though for different reasons. The most high profile example for Republicans is halting the flow of money in the North Carolina Senate race and redirecting funds to Kansas.
Some House races have seen similar cancellations, too, like the open race in Nebraska's 2nd District that is both a DCCC Red To Blue and NRCC MAGA Majority target.
Still, that data shows close to half a billion dollars in ad reservations have been placed between now and Election Day, showing that in this midterm election neither party is taking anything for granted.
Other races to watch: FL-13, NC-11, OH-10, OH-15
Copyright 2026 NPR
