This story was originally published by Louisiana Illuminator
Louisiana’s top weather official said the 2026 hurricane season is expected to produce an average number of storms, perhaps slightly less. That would mean about 13 named storms, with roughly half reaching hurricane strength and three becoming major hurricanes.
But state climatologist Jay Grymes, who shared expert consensus forecasts for the season Wednesday with members of the Coastal Restoration and Protection Authority, said that’s no reason for anyone to let their guard down.
Predictions of a Super El Niño are behind the outlook. The weather pattern occurs when warmer-than-average water temperatures just below extend throughout most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“The idea here is that with El Niño, we could see fewer storms getting organized, fewer storms achieving higher degrees of strength,” Grymes said.
The El Niño pattern effectively takes a developing tropical system and tilts it, Grymes said, comparing it to a leaning chimney.
“It’s not very efficient,” he said, “and, in fact, that tilt at some point can even rip the storm apart.”
Grymes shared his insights a day before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will give its prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season that lasts from June 1 through Nov. 30. He cited research from ten universities, including Colorado State, North Carolina State and Penn State.
But Grymes warned that while predictions for the 2026 season call for less activity, the increasing potential for rapidly intensifying hurricanes and multiple storm impacts over a single season mean Louisiana officials and residents need to remain vigilant.
“The fact is we really don’t have a good forecast yet for what Louisiana may experience, and so there’s absolutely no reason for anyone to be thinking that because the forecast calls for a reduction in activity, we can breathe sigh relief,” he said.
Over the past 25 years, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has increased. Its warm waters have fueled smaller hurricanes into bigger, more intense storms.
While no named hurricanes made landfall in Louisiana during 2025, Grymes warned against thinking it means this year will be uneventful again.
“We have short-term memory in our public audience,” Grymes said, “and so they’ve forgotten already what just happened, you know, three, five, seven years ago.”