LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Israel's election has reached a deadlock.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
More than 90% of the votes have been counted, and none of the candidates have a clear path to forming a coalition. So what will it take to break the impasse? Now, one option could be renewed war with Iran.
FADEL: Let's break this down with NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Good morning, Daniel.
DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: First, let's just talk about the election results now that the vast majority of votes have been counted. Where do things stand?
ESTRIN: Well, neither side has a clear majority. The remaining votes yet to be counted are not expected to change that. Parties need 61 seats in Parliament for a majority. Netanyahu and his allies so far have won 53 seats. Gadi Eisenkot and his allies have won 48 seats. So neither has the 61-seat majority that they need to form a government.
FADEL: So what could break the impasse?
ESTRIN: Well, there are some options here. Eisenkot's camp could win if they would be willing to partner with Arab-led parties, which have gained about 19 seats in Parliament. That is a record for parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. But that does not appear to be likely. It's too risky politically for Eisenkot. There has been a lot of demonization of Arab political leaders in Israel.
Another option is that Israel could hold repeat elections, but Eisenkot doesn't want that either. And, you know, the opposition would probably have a very hard time getting out the vote again if they couldn't beat Netanyahu this time around. So it seems that Eisenkot would be under a lot of pressure now to agree to enter a unity government with Netanyahu. And what could pressure him to do that is if Israel launches a new war with Iran. That is what one expert told me, Danny Citrinowicz. He used to head the Iran desk in Israeli military intelligence.
DANNY CITRINOWICZ: Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war. He understands that returning to war against Iran while forming government will serve his interest.
ESTRIN: And Netanyahu actually campaigned on this vow to join the U.S. and attack Iran.
FADEL: How would attacking Iran help Netanyahu stay in power?
ESTRIN: Well, we've seen Netanyahu use this playbook before twice. He has taken advantage of an emergency situation to enter power-sharing deals. Once was in 2020, during COVID. Netanyahu persuaded his main political rival to enter a unity government. And the next time was right after the October 7 attacks. Netanyahu actually persuaded Eisenkot himself to join an emergency war cabinet.
So he could do something similar now. It depends if Trump agrees to actually strike Iran together with Israel. Our reporting last week tells us that the U.S. and Israel could be preparing for a possible attack as early as next week after U.S. midterm elections.
FADEL: But on election night, Eisenkot called on Netanyahu not to go to war with Iran for political interests. So would an Iran attack actually convince Eisenkot to join forces with Netanyahu?
ESTRIN: You know, Leila, the moment Israeli fighter jets are actually in the air attacking Iran, Israeli political leaders - we've seen this in the last round - they unify to support the troops. So it will be very hard for Eisenkot to oppose a war if it's already happening.
We may see Eisenkot and opposition parties now race against the clock to do something else to try to gain political leverage in parliament. They can appoint a new speaker. They can start an October 7 Investigation Commission. That's very contentious for Netanyahu. All these moves could give Eisenkot an advantage for when he may need to come to the table and negotiate the terms of potentially sharing power with Netanyahu.
FADEL: NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Thank you, Daniel.
ESTRIN: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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