LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For more on what could happen with these new talks between the U.S. and the Kremlin, we're joined by Ambassador Kurt Volker. He is a distinguished fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, a former ambassador to NATO and previously the special representative to Ukraine during President Trump's first term. Welcome back to the program.
KURT VOLKER: Good morning, Leila. Thank you.
FADEL: Good morning. So the president has set this deadline Friday for a ceasefire in Ukraine or more sanctions for Russia. Is there anything special envoy Witkoff can say or offer to Russia's President Putin to get closer to a ceasefire?
VOLKER: Well, first off, it's President Trump who's the decision-maker here, and I think that Steve Witkoff's role is really just to tell Putin that he's very disappointed. Trump still wants a deal. He would love to have an arrangement with Russia, but Russia's continuing the war, so he has no choice, and this is really a last chance. That's what I think the message from Witkoff will be. And from Putin, it's just he wants to continue the war. You know, he feels that he has some momentum. He wants to take over all of Ukraine, and that is part of his pathway to rebuilding the Russian empire. And he's not going to stop. He may offer something insignificant, like a phone call with Zelenskyy and Trump or maybe another meeting in Istanbul, but he has no intention of stopping the war.
FADEL: So then what's the point of all this? I mean, if sanctions - sanctions haven't worked so far. There have been deadlines before that Putin has generally seemed unconcerned with. He hasn't said anything publicly. I mean, what is the point of this pressure campaign if it doesn't work?
VOLKER: Well, I think the point is to stop the war. I think the only thing that Putin responds to is pressure, is force. And so there's two sides to that. There is the military side, and President Trump, as we just heard, has already approved the transfer of American weapons and ammunition to Ukraine if they're bought by our European allies. There's more we could do there. We could put in place lend-lease legislation for Ukraine so they can borrow from us, buy weapons and then pay us back later. But that's one side, is the military side.
And then the other side of this is economic where it is important to try to stop the flow of funds into the Kremlin's budget so that they have a harder and harder time paying for this war. And sanctions have done some things, but we have never really vigorously enforced them. And I think a combination of the tariffs that President Trump is talking about but also secondary sanctions on the individuals and entities and insurance companies and ships and ports, everything that's involved in moving that Russian oil or paying for it - banks, for example. So those things, I think, could have a difference if we were very rigorous in enforcing it.
FADEL: But in your view, I mean, this Friday deadline is not something that will come to fruition. But these - the threat of force, the threat of crippling sanctions that will cripple Russia even further, that is where you think something might change?
VOLKER: Well, I think - yeah. I think Putin is going to try to avoid that. He's going to offer something, but he's not going to do what Trump is asking him to do. And what is important here is that President Trump really follow through because one of the objectives that Putin has is to make Trump look weak and indecisive. That serves his interests in Ukraine, in Europe, and it's very important for Trump not to let that happen.
FADEL: What do you make of how quiet he's been? I mean, nuclear submarines were moved. Steve Witkoff's on his way. The former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been quite vocal online, but the president himself has not.
VOLKER: Yeah. I think that's typical for Putin. He likes to have Medvedev out there as kind of his attack dog and saying outlandish things and getting people worried, and then Putin can portray himself as the real leader, the more reasonable person. But in reality, it's Putin who is making all the decisions and really driving this war.
FADEL: And what are you watching for as this meeting happens this week?
VOLKER: Well, you know, I think we're going to have to hear what both sides say after the meeting. Was it constructive? Did they get anything done? Was there any offer there? And then I think it's really important for President Trump to continue to insist on his own demands to have an immediate ceasefire, stop the killing and not to get dragged into a process of going down all these rabbit holes about preconditions that Russia wants. It wants commitment to Ukrainian neutrality. It wants a change of government. It wants an election. These are all ways that Putin uses to avoid actually having a ceasefire.
FADEL: Ambassador Kurt Volker was the special representative to Ukraine in the first Trump administration. Thank you for your time.
VOLKER: My pleasure. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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