ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
If you're having a hard time figuring out what's going on with the U.S. economy, you're not alone. Wall Street's top CEOs are trying to manage all the uncertainty created by President Trump's chaotic tariffs and other economic policies. They're also dealing with some strong emotions. NPR financial correspondent Maria Aspan reports.
MARIA ASPAN, BYLINE: Wall Street is more and more worried about America's superpower status. Take JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who runs the country's largest bank. He recently said he's worried about the power of the U.S. dollar and how other governments have historically relied on it.
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JAMIE DIMON: I always get asked this question, are we going to be the reserve currency in - no. You know, if we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency.
ASPAN: So his bottom line?
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DIMON: We have to get our act together, and we have to do it very quickly.
ASPAN: Dimon is in good company. The people who run the country's banks wield a vast amount of power over our financial system. They're usually first to see what's happening in our economy. And these top executives have spent most of this spring going through the five stages of tariffs grief, starting with denial.
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STEPHANIE GUICHARD: They are not thinking so much about tariffs. They are thinking about deregulation. They are thinking about lower taxes.
ASPAN: That was Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard speaking in March. CEO confidence had just soared to a three-year high, but fast-forward to late last month and CEO confidence has plummeted in its worst drop in half a century. Now Wall Street seems to have moved on to anger and depression.
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KEN GRIFFIN: I really thought we were looking at four years of just tremendous growth and tremendous American economic vitality.
ASPAN: That's Ken Griffin, the billionaire investor and Republican megadonor, speaking at a Forbes conference last week. His feelings reflect a lot of the emotional roller coaster that Wall Street - and, well, all of us - are on when it comes to figuring out what's going to happen to the U.S. economy. But big company CEOs tend to have more power than most of us, and now they're calling for more bargaining, especially with China. At the recent Reagan National Economic Forum, Dimon warned the United States against continuing to escalate its trade war with one of its largest trading partners.
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DIMON: I would engage with China. You know, I would - I just got back from China last week. They're not scared, folks.
ASPAN: Meanwhile, some of Wall Street's top economists are warning that we all might need to practice acceptance - of an economic downturn, that is. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is currently predicting that the U.S. has a 35% chance of falling into a recession in the next year. That's come down from April after Trump unveiled most of his tariffs, but as Hatzius said at a recent Goldman conference...
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JAN HATZIUS: Thirty-five is still a sizable number, and I think a lot of it is around the fact that the president loves tariffs.
ASPAN: It's not just the tariffs, of course. The surging national deficit, the president's proposed budget and recent economic data have also worried investors, consumers, small businesses and big business leaders. So if there's a silver lining to all of this tariffs grief, it's that Wall Street CEOs seem increasingly willing to speak out about it. Here's Katie Koch, chief executive of the bond trading giant TCW, at a recent conference.
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KATIE KOCH: There's this narrative that we need to embark on these policies because somehow we were losing.
ASPAN: She pointed out that Americans have reaped a lot of benefits from our country's global economic superpower status.
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KOCH: We've done a lot of winning already, and we do have a lot to lose.
ASPAN: And if that happens, Wall Street and the rest of the country will be starting the grieving process all over again. Maria Aspan, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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